A confederation (also known as confederacy or league) is a union of political units for common action in relation to other units.[1] Usually created by treaty but often later adopting a common constitution, confederations tend to be established for dealing with critical issues (such as defense, foreign affairs, or a common currency), with the central government being required to provide support for all members.
Philip Gordon, James Dobbins and Jeff Martini recently observed that Syria has devolved as a state into various parts under the control of contending groups. Rather than pushing for a comprehensive resolution of all issues and the reconsolidation of the various territories into a single government, the authors propose a confederation:
Instead of delaying a halt to hostilities while trying to bridge these currently unbridgeable gaps, we advocate a more limited approach, based on a different sequence. The International Syria Support Group should concentrate on securing an immediate cease-fire and arranging for its enforcement, followed by further negotiations on the shape of a reconstituted Syrian state. Even this will be hard to agree on, but it is a more realistic goal for now, and it is hugely preferable to the main alternative: the continuation or even escalation of a devastating war.
Our plan would include maintaining Syria’s unity and territorial integrity, but it would be based on the reality that different parts of the country are already largely controlled by different ethnic groups backed by different outside powers. Those powers and their Syrian clients could agree to provisionally define and accept three corresponding “safe zones” — one controlled by the regime in the west, one controlled mainly by the Kurds in the northeast and one noncontiguous zone in the north and south controlled by the moderate Sunni opposition. A fourth zone would be created in central and eastern Syria in which the Islamic State would be targeted by all. The external powers most closely involved, including Russia, Iran, the United States, Turkey and Jordan, would guarantee adherence to the cease-fire among their respective proxies.
[…]
Immediately following the cease-fire, the United Nations would convene all of the Syrian factions that accepted the plan to begin negotiating on the future of a unified state. Restoring a unified Syria would likely take time, if it is possible at all. The resulting state might be federal or confederal. Reaching an accord would probably involve granting extensive autonomy, including control over security, to local authorities. It might involve some form of sectarian power-sharing and require specific guarantees for minorities within each region. It might involve constitutional reform to redistribute institutional powers and an election in which Assad would not run. These would be issues for the Syrians to work out, under U.N. auspices and with the involvement of the external powers. They would be difficult to resolve, but not as difficult as they are now, as the killing continues.
It seems that the US is – behind the scenes – pushing toward a Kurdish semi-autonomous region of the sort outlined by Gordon, et al., but Turkey is vehemently opposed.
from Stowe Boyd http://stoweboyd.com/post/141193831372
