Neil Irwin tries to cast a light on shadow workers, but the murk remains:
When there is a large pool of people who fit the official definition of unemployed — people actively looking for work — finding them is relatively easy. It can be a simple matter of picking the most promising applicants and paying a competitive wage.
But when the pool of potential workers is heavily tilted toward people who are not actively seeking work [’shadow workers’, so-called], as appears to be the case today, it may be that employers have to work harder to find them. Perhaps employers are paying more for the lowest-paid, entry-level staff, even as they are keeping the lid on pay increases for those at middle levels and are ultimately finding the staff they need after more difficulty than usual.
A hiring manager had an easy job between 2009 and a year or two ago, with hordes of unemployed Americans beating down the door in search of work. It’s getting harder to attract and keep good staff, and some companies may be having trouble with the adjustment, said Paul McDonald, a senior executive director at the staffing firm Robert Half International.
“If I’m an employer, I’m asking, ‘When was the last time I gave my employees, especially my high performers, a bump in compensation?’ ” Mr. McDonald said. “I’m asking myself, ‘What am I doing to retain my workers?’ That’s a wake-up call for some clients.”
In other words, right now companies may be having to work harder to find staff given a low unemployment rate. As more of the shadow work force finds its way back into jobs, employers will most likely have to back their efforts with cold, hard cash, and when that happens higher wage gains should follow.
Where are these wage gains? They are in the shadows, too. Postnormal economics – down where the foundational interest rate is zero, and risk cannot be ascertained – is paradoxical, so the obvious wage hikes to find and retain the best workers are not happening.
from Stowe Boyd http://stoweboyd.com/post/128632397537
